Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (3/10/2010)
March 10th, 2010 6:16 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for today's Treasury auction. The stock markets are showing minor gains again with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is being held today and could influence mortgage rates later. It is common to see some weakness ahead of these important sales as participants look to protect themselves against potential volatility. This is especially true when there is not a high expectation of a strong sale. However, if the sales are met with decent demand, it is also common to see the morning losses erased during afternoon trading.

Results of today's auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand for the 10-year Notes was h igh, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, possibly improving mortgage rates this afternoon. But, is the sale was met with weak interest, selling in bonds could precede an increase to mortgage pricing. The results of recent sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally today. We also get to repeat the process tomorrow for the 30-year bond auction.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two relatively minor economic reports. January's Goods and Services Trade Balance is the first. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and is expected to show a $41.0 billion deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Also early tomorrow morning is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 460,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be a decline from the previous week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, since it tracks only a week's worth of new claims, it usually takes a wide variance between forecasts and the actual total for it to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 10th, 2010 6:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

Another Real Estate Market Opinion
March 9th, 2010 1:32 PM

The below article is a compilation from others peppered with our own opinion and we fully believe the below to be true............

I'm going to take some heat for this, but I have an opinion on the national real estate climate.

I know, I know, the concept of me owning an opinion is a surprise a kin to the sun rising each morning but there's something happening with the real estate market on a national level that I don't quite understand. There is an optimism that seems to be sprouting up around the country in regards to the housing markets, and it’s an optimism that seems to be lacking a sturdy foundation.

On a national level, I'm currently a broad market housing bear. I believe in real estate, and I love real estate, but I don't think the market is currently acting entirely rational. Markets like Southern California are on the upswing, with 2009 volume and pricing both up from 2008. National markets are seeing an increase in volume and even slight up ticks in pricing, and the real estate mood is turning more and more positive with each passing month. If the sentiment on the street, and the sales pitches breathlessly leaving Realtors mouths are mostly positive, things would appear, on the surface, to be turning around. Not so fast, as there are some major factors and influences on this market that are being ignored.

By now, everyone knows that the housing crash of 2008 was brought about by a dangerous confluence of bad loans, unsustainable prices, and a weakening job market. Equal to those well known factors is the lesser known concept that demand may have dried up simply because so many people bought homes from 2002 to 2007, and there just wasn't enough fresh money in the market to continue pushing prices and home ownership rates higher.

When the market started reversing in 2007, those caught with negative equity began giving up their homes in historical numbers. Foreclosures soared, and the properties that banks now owned as REO had their prices slashed as banks tried to unload the crushing burden of their swelling real estate portfolios. The following two years saw a reduction in prices that in some markets have fallen as much as 70% from the market highs. The root of the problem has been the foreclosure boom, and as long as the foreclosure rate holds steady or rises, there can be no housing recovery on a national level.

With things looking up at real estate offices everywhere, this new optimism must be based on some statistical proof that we're coming out of a bear housing market. There must be some signs pointing to a lessoning of foreclosures, higher sales prices of REO's, and increased volume. Buyers were active last summer nationally, and certainly those buyers were buying at the "bottom" of the national market. Right? Unfortunately, in my opinion, wrong.

Late last year, Freddie Mac released their activity report which includes YTD statistical information from the government run mortgage giant. There were a bunch of numbers in the report, but only one that really matters when looking for a sign as to the future of the national real estate market, the delinquency rate.

Delinquency rate is a term used to describe loans that are more than 90 days past due, and it is one of the key statistical signals for judging the health of the market moving forward. With a nascent recovery underway, certainly the delinquency rate is decreasing, or at the very least, holding steady, right? Again, wrong. The delinquency rate for Freddie Mac's loan portfolio increased in September to 3.33%. The August number was 3.13% and here's the real kicker- one year ago the rate was a mere 1.22%. Realtytrac statistics aside, I believe reviewing the holdings of a mortgage giant are a more accurate way to gauge future foreclosure activity.

If you're looking for a recovery on a national level, really think about this delinquency rate and what it means for the near future of the national market. The general attitude is that the worst is over, and it's time to buy. Realtors love that time to buy stuff, but that happy whiskers on kittens attitude just isn't backed with any solid statistical data yet. As long as delinquency rates stay high, a lasting recovery cannot begin.

How's that for some negative news from this cheerful real estate guy? The reality is that I do think that all markets are individual. A bottom for one may not represent a bottom for all, so it's important to pay attention to the market trends for the individual market you're affected by.

If you're looking in Southern California for a home, the delinquency rate has a large effect on you largely because our market has not yet proven to hit bottom and is still heavily affected by foreclosure issues. Obviously you need to pay attention to the market statistics, but in doing so, always keep that delinquency rate in mind. As long as the rate is increasing or remaining stable at the current elevated level, a national rebound in prices and volume cannot be sustained.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 9th, 2010 1:32 PMPost a Comment (0)

U.S. housing giants are city-sized property owners
March 9th, 2010 12:09 PM

U.S. housing giants are city-sized property owners

Mar 8, 2010 16:03 EST

Home ownership in the United States ranks up there with apple pie and motherhood. The government has championed it for decades, through tax breaks, mortgage guarantees and most recently the Herculean task of keeping Americans in their homes after the housing market collapse. But government subsidies of the American Dream also have a darker side: when things head south, taxpayers end up on the hook.

Government-run mortgage agencies Fannie Mae  and Freddie Mac owned more than 131,000 properties between them at the end of 2009, according to recent annual filings. That’s roughly the equivalent of San Francisco’s owner-occupied housing stock — and it’s up substantially from 2008, despite the two giant companies’ efforts last year offloading nearly 200,000 units that they ended up with after their previous owners defaulted.

And things are set to get worse. Barclays Capital estimates the pipeline of severely troubled loans at around 5 million across the United States. Modification programs, which should help some borrowers stay in their homes, have also delayed the inevitable forfeiture of many others.

Fannie and Freddie are on the hook because they provided guarantees for the benefit of mortgage investors. Between them, they back around $5 trillion of U.S. home loans. Such support — once implicitly and now explicitly backstopped by the Treasury — has handed borrowers relatively low financing costs for years. Now, though, the result is that aside from the huge financial burden they place on taxpayers, the two companies have been amassing foreclosed properties and, in a few cases, have become landlords.

It’s a tiny part of their operations for now. But if the housing market doesn’t turn around soon, they could find themselves reluctantly managing more properties. And no-one expected — or wants — Fannie and Freddie to become giant public sector landlords.

The immediate task is to clean up the mess, but policymakers need to think about the longer term. That means recognizing that the policy benefit of subsidizing home ownership has reached its limit — and starting to take the government out of the mortgage guarantee business altogether.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 9th, 2010 12:09 PMPost a Comment (0)

China's Challenge
March 9th, 2010 10:28 AM

Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 9th, 2010 10:28 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates (3/9/2010)
March 9th, 2010 10:25 AM

Tuesday's bond market has opened up slightly, but not enough to improve mortgage rates. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at yesterday's levels.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today or tomorrow morning. The 10-year Treasury Note auction will be held tomorrow while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET of each day. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

The week's first factual economic data will come Thursday morning. January's Goo ds and Services Trade Balance will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and is expected to show a $41.0 billion deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Also Thursday is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 460,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be a decline from the previous week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, since it tracks only a week's worth of new claims, it usually takes a wide variance between forecasts and the actual total for it to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 9th, 2010 10:25 AMPost a Comment (0)

Lost money on house? ‘Short sellers’ face huge tax bills anyway
March 8th, 2010 11:18 AM

Lost money on house? ‘Short sellers’ face huge tax bills anyway

March 3rd, 2010, 3:00 am · 48 Comments · posted by BRIAN JOSEPH, Sacramento Correspondent

April hasn’t been a kind month to Harold Honeywell.

On April 3, 2007, his wife of 18 years died of cancer. Two years later, on the anniversary of her death, he was laid off. And now April 15, Tax Day, threatens to cost Honeywell thousands, because state officials have quietly allowed a common tax exemption to lapse.

Honeywell, 61, is one of thousands of Californians who sold his house at a loss when the payments became too much, a practice commonly known as a “short sale.”

In June, just two months after he was laid off from his job as a construction superintendent, Honeywell decided he could no longer afford the two-bedroom, two-bath home in Rancho Santa Margarita he had purchased for about $428,000 in 2003. So Honeywell did the responsible thing and sold it, for $350,000, instead of simply walking away.

With commissions and other fees, Honeywell shows a loss, on paper, of about $112,000, but he wasn’t too worried.  You see, a few years back the federal government passed legislation that eliminated tax liability for mortgage debt forgiveness, and many states – including California – followed with similar bills of their own. Honeywell figured he wouldn’t owe any taxes on the $112,000 he lost. He moved to Fort Wayne, Ind., and thought the worst was over.

Then, last week, he started preparing his 2009 taxes and discovered something: California no longer offers tax relief for short sellers. Any mortgage debt that your lender forgives when you sell at a loss is taxed, like income. If you make $50,000 a year and sold your house at a $100,000 loss in 2009, you owe the Golden State taxes on $150,000 in income.

Honeywell is on the hook for more than $8,600 in taxes — all because he sold his house at a loss.

“I’m not one of the big ones (who lost a lot of money),” Honeywell said. “They’re going to be in for a rude awakening.”

Honeywell and  thousands of others are in this situation because Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the State Legislature have allowed a state version of the federal exemption to expire and have been arguing over new legislation to reinstate it. The federal government passed its version in 2007, which establishes the exemption through 2012. Many states simply adopted the federal exemption as part of their own state laws, but California didn’t do that.

So the following year, State Sens. Lou Correa, D-Santa Ana, and Mike Machado, D-Linden, sponsored a bill to create an exemption for California. At the time, Correa’s office said, it wanted the exemption to last until 2011, but others suggested a shorter period, so the final legislation established the exemption for only two years, 2007 and 2008.

When 2009 rolled around and Californians continued short selling, lawmakers moved to extend the exemption. Correa and State Sen. Ron Calderon, D-Montebello, introduced a bill to extend it to 2013. Assemblyman Roger Niello, R-Sacramento, authored similar legislation. Both were stalled in the Legislature. Then Assemblyman Charles Calderon, D-Whittier, swooped in with an exemption bill of his own, only his included a controversial provision that created a penalty for tax filers who file for unfounded refunds.

The Legislature passed Charles Calderon’s bill but Schwarzenegger summarily vetoed it, because of the penalty provision. Correa, Ron Calderon and Niello have reintroduced legislation, but those bills aren’t going anywhere. The only bill that seems to be moving forward is one by State Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis, which includes the same provision that caused Schwarzenegger to veto the last one.

Some Democrats, in other words, are trying to use the predicament of short sellers as leverage to get this tax penalty approved. As the Ventura County Star’s Timm Herdt reported, the governor’s office is prepared to sign a bill like the ones by Correa, Ron Calderon and Niello, which only address the exemption issue. But the Democrats who control the Legislature are insisting on only moving forward with those bills that include the tax penalty, which they say is important policy.

Democrats counter that it’s Schwarzenegger who is playing politics, by putting the interests of rich people and businesses over struggling Californians who had to sell their homes at a loss.

It’s a political standoff with people like Honeywell caught in the middle. And the clock is ticking.

Honeywell says he’s going to file his federal taxes now and wait until April 14 to file his state taxes, in the hopes another exemption is passed. He’s not optimistic, but he figures its worth a shot. Obviously, something needs to be done, he said. Hopefully someone in Sacramento will do something about it.

“I hate to say it,” Honeywell said, “but even Stevie Wonder can see the gravity of the situation.”


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 8th, 2010 11:18 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates (3/8/2010b)
March 8th, 2010 10:23 AM

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory, extending last week's generally negative tone. The stock markets are flat with both the Dow and Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in rates due to strength in mortgage bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that any changes to mortgage pricing will come from swings in stock prices. If the stock markets move higher from current levels, we may see bonds worsen and mortgage rates revise higher later today. If the major stock indexes move lower, mortgage rates may follow suit.

The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports along with the 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so today may not be the only day we look towards the stock markets for bond direction.

There are no relevant events scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday morning either. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

Overall, it will likely be another fairly active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be today or tomorrow, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 8th, 2010 10:23 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates (3/8/2010)
March 8th, 2010 10:22 AM

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory, extending last week's generally negative tone. The stock markets are flat with both the Dow and Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in rates due to strength in mortgage bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that any changes to mortgage pricing will come from swings in stock prices. If the stock markets move higher from current levels, we may see bonds worsen and mortgage rates revise higher later today. If the major stock indexes move lower, mortgage rates may follow suit.

The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports along with the 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so today may not be the only day we look towards the stock markets for bond direction.

There are no relevant events scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday morning either. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

Overall, it will likely be another fairly active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be today or tomorrow, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 8th, 2010 10:22 AMPost a Comment (0)

Interest Rates (3/7/2010 - The Week Ahead)
March 8th, 2010 10:21 AM

This week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so several days will likely be influenced more by stock trading and other factors than the economic news of the day.

There are no relevant events scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward t rend in mortgage pricing.

January's Goods and Services Trade Balance is the week's first economic data. It comes early Thursday morning and gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. Current forecasts are calling for a $41.0 billion trade deficit during January.

There will be two reports posted Friday morning. The first is at 8:30 AM and is the most important of the week. This is when February's Retail Sales data will be posted. It is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.2%. If Friday's release reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will mo ve higher. If it reveals a decline, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Friday morning.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 73.8, which is a slight increase from February's final reading.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be tomorrow or Tuesday, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 8th, 2010 10:21 AMPost a Comment (0)

Positive Affirmations, Do Positive Affirmations Really Work
March 7th, 2010 3:42 PM

Positive Affirmations, Do Positive Affirmations Really Work - By Warren Wojnowski
------------------------------------------------------------
Positive affirmations -- do positive affirmations really work or not?

You may have heard that "affirmations do not work" or perhaps you find yourself wondering whether affirmations really work or how do affirmations work.

The answer of course is "it depends". It depends on the affirmation and it depends the person's level of belief ... or more accurately your level of disbelief.

If the affirmation you say or write doesn't feel true or believable to you, more likely than not it will not manifest for you. You have to "feel" good about your affirmations. So use how you feel when writing your affirmation in order to best achieve results.

If you write down an affirmation that really is not what you believe, you're going to have a natural resistance in your vibration or subconscious thought and so you will be thwarting yourself. So reword your affirmations in a positive way that is believable to you and then say it out loud EVERY DAY, several times a day (because affirmations said only once are not powerful enough to change your sub-conscious patterns of thinking).

For example, instead of saying "I am", if that feels off, substitute the words "I am in the process of" into your affirmation.

Affirmations help you mold yourself into what you want to become. Keep your affirmations open on the "how". When you state something freely and openly then there is no resistance as to how it can come to you. When we say "mold", we mean you are in effect changing yourself, so you need to establish this new you slowly and gently over time.

Also, be careful in your wording of your affirmation because if you aren't, you may go through some chaos as you achieve it. For example, if you want a new job because your current one is stressful, you may get the new job by being fired from your current one or even find yourself an even more stressful job.

In order to avoid chaos or the drama, work into your affirmation that you are achieving what you want in an easy, gentle way. So word your affirmation indicating you are finding a job that you will enjoy in a way that provides you positive change.

"I am in the process of finding a job that is fun and fulfilling and I am making the transition to that job in a relaxed, stress free manner."

Repeat this once a day every day if you have no resistance to saying it.

Remember also that if your job doesn't show up right away, that doesn't mean it isn't coming. Things have to line up first, which means you really have to truly know what it is you want ... otherwise you will not likely be in alignment with it.

So while you are waiting for the "perfect job", affirm to yourself that your current job is stress free and enjoyable. Now you are covered. You get less stress in your current job, while your perfect job is on the way.

Now you are out of the way in terms of how it happens. You may find that in the end you didn't need a new job, but just had to adjust to the changes in your current one. And once you learned to respond better to your circumstances things improved for you in all areas of your life.

We also hear about people using over 300 affirmations a day, and getting no results. The solution is to focus. Focus on something that is really important for you. In this case, less is more.

Finding relief from your current situation also may be the next step for you to achieving success. So start with an affirmation that you are discovering more joy or love in your life. Start with simple things.

If you find yourself in a stressful situation, you can repeat specific affirmations to help calm you down. Let's say you are stressed, then affirm you have "peace and calmness" soaking deep into your being right now. Take a few minutes to see yourself soaking in that wonderful energy. Those quick positive affirmations are handy, so be ready to use them.

It can be very simple to work with positive affirmations if you take a simple easy does it approach with no resistance in the words. A lot can be done right now to make your next 12 months a positive experience just by starting today to write out your key affirmations for the next 12 months.


Posted by Lehel Szucs on March 7th, 2010 3:42 PMPost a Comment (0)

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