September 29th, 2009 9:13 AM by Lehel Szucs
Tuesday's bond market initially opened well in negative territory but has since recovered a good portion of those losses following a much weaker than expected consumer confidence reading. The stocks markets are posting losses with the Dow down 27 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but this is well off earlier lows. However, we will still likely see an improvement to this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength yesterday.
The Conference Board, who is a New York based business research group, reported late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September stood at 53.1. That was a decline from August's reading and well below forecasts of a 57.0 reading, indicating that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it means that consumer s are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future.
Tomorrow's only relevant report is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don't see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of a 1.0% decline in GDP.
Also tomorrow is a speech by Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart. He will be speaking at 10:30 AM ET about the Fed's economic outlook at the University of South Alabama. These types of speeches don't always affect the markets, but they do draw some attention from market participants just in case something new or unexpected is said. It likely will not impact mortgage rates, but the potential makes it worth noting.
Thursday and Friday brings us the release of the week's most important economic data. Each day has two reports that can move the markets and mortgage pricing. The most important of them comes Friday morning when September's Employment data is posted, but Thursday's ISM manufacturing index is also highly important.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009