Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (9/20/2010)

September 20th, 2010 9:42 AM by Lehel S.

Monday's bond market has opened relatively flat with little on tap today to drive trading. The stock markets are starting the week with sizable gains. The Dow is currently up 100 points while the Nasdaq has gained 25 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we still should see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data or other events scheduled for today that are likely to influence the bond market or mortgage rates. If we see another change to mortgage pricing today, it will probably come as a result of noticeable movement in the major stock indexes. If stocks move higher, bonds will suffer, possibly leading to an upward revision to rates. On the other hand, if stocks fall from current levels, mortgage rates may improve later today.

The rest of the week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting. Only one of the f actual reports is considered to be of high importance. In fact, most of the economic news is considered to be low or moderately important. This should help limit the possibility of significant changes to mortgage rates most days this week.

August's Housing Starts will kick-off the week's data early tomorrow morning. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show a slight increase in new home starts between July and August. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to have an impact on mortgage rates.

The FOMC meeting is also tomorrow and is a one-day meeting. Mr. Bernanke and friends will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. There is little possibility of seeing any type of change to key short-term interest rates. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to find when the Fed's next move may come. The wild card is how the markets react to the statement because the lack of a change to key short-term interest rates shouldn't affect afternoon trading. If we see significant weakness in stocks, the bond market may benefit as a safe-haven from the volatility. This could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning.

Overall, I don't believe any of this week's data has the potential to move the markets or mortgage rates heavily. However, we still may see some changes in rates day-to-day, especially if the stock markets move significantly higher or lower. If still floating an interest rate, continued contact with your mortgage professional is recommended, but this will likely be a calmer week if comparing to recent weeks.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
Posted in:General
Posted by Lehel S. on September 20th, 2010 9:42 AM

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