September 2nd, 2008 8:49 AM by Lehel Szucs
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting this shortened week with strong gains as the Dow is up 183 points and the Nasdaq has gained 27 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.
The Institute for Supply Management posted their manufacturing index late this morning, showing a reading of 49.9. This was very close to last month's reading and slightly higher than forecasts, but has not had much of an influence on this morning's trading or mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of July's Factory Orders data. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 0.4% increase in new orders . A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday.
Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the Federal Reserve release of its Beige Book report. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings. It is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting. If the 2:00 PM ET release reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed's next interest rate move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a change in mortgage rates.
Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates Friday due to the importance of the Employment report. I am holding the short-term lock recommendations for the time being, but this does not mean that I think rates will necessarily move higher. It means that I feel the risk versu s the potential reward of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily towards the risky side. Accordingly, locking seems to be the prudent position at this time if closing in the immediate future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2008