August 24th, 2009 11:05 AM by Lehel Szucs
Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off by continuing Friday's rally. The Dow is currently up 73 points while the Nasdaq has gained 13 points. The bond market is down 5/32, which with Friday's afternoon weakness should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point compared to Friday's morning rates.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. As expected, the stock markets are having the most influence on bond trading and mortgage rates so far. If the major stock indexes continue to rise, we may see bond prices fall further today, possibly leading to upward revisions in mortgage rates this afternoon.
The Conference Board will post this week's first relevant economic report late tomorrow morning with the release of August's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This index measures consumer sentiment about the ir own financial situations, giving us a measurement of willingness to spend. That is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline would indicate that consumers might not be making large purchases in the immediate future. That sign of economic weakness should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 48.0, which would be an increase from July's 46.6.
Overall, we will likely see the most activity in rates tomorrow morning, but Wednesday and Thursday are also important. If we manage to get weaker than expected results in the key reports and the two important Treasury auctions go well, we should see mortgage rates close the week lower than today's opening levels. But stronger than expected results in the economic reports and disappointing results in the Treasury sales will most likely lead to rates moving higher this week.
If I were considering financi ng/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009