Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (8/20/2010)

August 20th, 2010 10:45 AM by Lehel S.

Friday's bond market has opened flat even though the stock markets are posting another round of losses. The Dow is following yesterday's 144 point drop with a 74 point loss during early trading. The Nasdaq is currently down 8 points after losing almost 37 points yesterday. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday's close, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates close to yesterday's levels.

There is no relevant economic data or related events scheduled today. As we have seen a couple days this week, the bond market and mortgage rates will likely be left up to the direction of stocks. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely weaken, leading to slightly higher mortgage rates this afternoon. However, more stock selling could translate into lower mortgage pricing.

The bond market has put together another rally recently, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield down to 2.57%. While this is good news for mortgage pricing because yields and mortgage rates move in the same direction, I would like to see some stabilization at this level before moving any lower. Rates tend to spike higher much quicker than they drop and often come as a complete surprise. Unless we have some time elapse with yields in this area, I fear that we could see profit-profit taking or a reversal at anytime that would lead to yields and mortgage rates spiking higher. Therefore, I am recommending extreme caution if still floating an interest rate and closing on a loan in the near future.

That doesn't mean that I believe mortgage rates have bottomed-out. It simply means that too much, too quickly isn't necessarily good for the longer-term picture. With some stabilization at this level, we can establish a trading range that will allow us to spot red flags or warning signs before rates begin to move higher. Until then, please be careful if playing the floating game with your interest rate.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports along with a couple relevant Treasury auctions, none of which come Monday. That can be labeled a pretty busy week, but I don't think it will be much more active than this week was. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
Posted in:General
Posted by Lehel S. on August 20th, 2010 10:45 AM

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