July 9th, 2008 9:52 AM by Lehel Szucs
Wednesday's bond market has opened relatively flat yet again, which seems to be the norm lately. The stock markets are following suit with the Dow and Nasdaq both down a couple of points. The bond market is currently up only 1/32, but due to strength in bonds late yesterday we should see an improvement of .250 - .375 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release again today. I am expecting the stock markets, and possibly oil prices, to continue to be the biggest influence on bond trading the rest of the day. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates will likely follow suit. However, if stocks or oil moves significantly, we likely will see a shift in bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing.
I am remaining on the cautious side, particularly in the short-term outlooks. I think there is more likelihood of seeing bonds fall and mortgage rates move higher in the immediate future than there is of them improving much. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for immediate and short-term closings.
The first piece of economic news that may affect mortgage rates is tomorrow weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. Analysts will be paying a little more attention to this week's release than usual because last week's report showed that claims had crossed above 400,000 the previous week. This is an important benchmark that will be watched closely. Last week's numbers didn't get much attention because they were posted at the same time as June's monthly Employment report. But with little data scheduled for release this week, I believe more focus will be made on tomorrow's report than usual. Current forecasts are calling for approximately 395,000 new claims to have been filed.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 da ys... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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