Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (7/8/2010)

July 8th, 2010 10:38 AM by Lehel S.

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative ground, extending yesterday's late weakness resulting from the strong stock market rally that drove the Dow up 274 points and above 10,000. The Dow is currently up 66 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Last week's unemployment figures were posted by the Labor Department early this morning. They announced that 454,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was lower than the expected 460,000 and can be considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this data is not known to be highly important because it tracks only a single week's worth of new claims. But since there is no important data being released this week, today's news has influenced bond trading and mortgage rates slightly more than it usually would for a small variance from forecasts.

This morning's losses in the bond market have pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note back above 3.00% (currently 3.03%). While this is only an intra-day move at the moment, it can become more of an issue for mortgage rates if it closes above that level today. We would like to see it close below 3.00%, making that threshold a ceiling of resistance. If we do close above that level the next few days, there is a decent possibility of seeing mortgage rates move higher in the immediate future.

Tomorrow is no different than every other day this week. There are no important reports or relevant speeches, auctions or other events on the calendar for tomorrow. That leaves the stock markets as the likely candidate to influence bond trading and mortgage rates. Generally speaking, stock gains will probably lead to bond weakness and higher mortgage rates. Ideally, we would prefer to se e stocks fall, making bonds more attractive to investors. Regardless, I am not expecting to see a sizable move in rates either direction. I suspect that traders will play it safe until we get to next week's important economic data.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
Posted in:General
Posted by Lehel S. on July 8th, 2010 10:38 AM



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