Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (7/28/2010)

July 28th, 2010 8:48 AM by Lehel S.

Wednesday's bond market has opened relatively flat even though we saw weaker than expected results in this morning's economic news and a negative open in stocks. The stock markets are posting minor losses with the Dow down 20 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us this morning's important economic news with the release of June's Durable Goods Orders. They announced a decline of 1.0% in new orders for big-ticket items when analysts were expecting to see a 0.7% increase. This data is known to be volatile from month to month, but this is still a sizable difference. Even if larger, more volatile transportation-related orders were excluded, we would have seen a drop of 0.6%. That was also well short of forecasts, indicating that the manufacturing sector may have been weaker than expected last mon th. Therefore, this data can be considered favorable for the bond market.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress last week gave us a recent update, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates as a result of this report.

Also today is the first of this week's two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates. Today's sale is the 5-year Note auction while tomorrow brings us the 7-year Note sale. Their results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET both days, so any reaction will come during afternoon hours. If investor interest was s trong, the bond market may rally and mortgage rates could move lower later today. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. 

There is no relevant monthly or quarterly economic data being posted tomorrow. The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning, but this data usually has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Since it tracks only a week's worth of new claims for unemployment benefits, it takes a large variance from forecasts for the bond market to react enough to influence mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see little change from the previous week's 464,000 new claims.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
Posted in:General
Posted by Lehel S. on July 28th, 2010 8:48 AM



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