Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (7/19/2010)

July 19th, 2010 11:33 AM by Lehel S.

Monday's bond market has opened down slightly following a positive open in stocks. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 23 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at Friday's morning levels.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest influence on the bond market and any potential changes to mortgage rates this afternoon. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of June's Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a decline in new home construction starts. However, I don't see this data having much of an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The rest of the week has only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled in addition to Fed Chairman's Bernanke's semi-annual congressional update on the status of the economy and monetary policy. He will speak before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee Thursday mornings at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcast and watched very closely. We usually see the most movement in rates during the first day of this testimony as the Chairman's prepared words for both appearances are quite similar to each other, meaning that the second day of testimony rarely gives us anything we did not hear during the first day. 

Overall, this is a moderately significant week for the bond market and mortgage rates. If we get weaker than expected economic results and Fed Chairman Bernanke's words do not negatively surprise the markets, we may see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, if Mr. Bernanke's testimony raises concerns about rapid economic growth or inflation, rates may move higher on the week. I suspect we will see them move noticeably from current levels, which could be the base for more movement in the same direction over the next couple of weeks. Therefore, even though there is not a large number of relevant reports scheduled for release, don't underestimate the importance of this particularly week. This is especially true if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
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Posted by Lehel S. on July 19th, 2010 11:33 AM

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