June 8th, 2009 10:21 AM by Lehel Szucs
Monday's bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled and a negative open in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week off by giving back some of its recent gains. The Dow is down 90 points while the Nasdaq has lost 26 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from Friday's close, but we still may see a slight improvement in mortgage pricing compared to Friday's morning rates.
This week brings us the release of four pieces of data for the markets to digest. The most important news will be posted late in the week, so we may see the most movement in rates during those days. The first part of the week will likely be driven by stock market gains or losses, as we have seen so far this morning.
The week's first but least important data is April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Wednesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasters are expecting to see a $28.7 billion deficit.
Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings to determine monetary policy. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.
Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets, but the most action will probably come in the latter days. I think that Thursday will be the single most important day of the week, but as we saw last week, we don't need significant news from economic reports for the markets to move heavily and mortgage rates to change. Accor dingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional?particularly after last week's selling.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.