June 30th, 2009 9:27 AM by Lehel Szucs
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock losses and weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets are in selling mode after digesting this morning's economic news with the Dow down 105 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us today's only relevant economic data when they posted June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning. They reported a reading of 49.3 that was well below forecasts of 55.1. This means that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is actually supposed to be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates since it indicates consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near future. Unfortunately for mortgage shoppers, bond traders seem to have forgotten that this morning.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business worsened in the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are expecting a reading of 44.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business improved slightly from the previous month. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading.
Thursday brings us the release of two monthly reports, one being the extremely important Employment report. The other, May's Factory Order's data will likely have little impact on the financial markets or mortgage rates as most of the attention will be directed towards the employment figures.
The financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Ind ependence Day holiday, but there will be no early close for the bond market Thursday as has been the case previous years. However, it will still probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend. This could magnify the reaction the markets will have to the morning's data.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009