June 30th, 2009 8:47 AM by Lehel Szucs
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors prepare for this week's economic news. The stock markets have opened the holiday-shortened week in positive ground with the Dow up 74 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.
This week brings us the release of only four economic reports for the markets to digest, but three of them are considered to be important and one of those three is arguably the most influential report we see each month. In addition, these reports are being released over just three trading days.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the first report of the week and will be posted late tomorrow morning. This index is important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending make s up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 55.1, up slightly from last month's 54.9 reading.
Overall, tomorrow and Wednesday's data (Consumer Confidence Index and ISM index) should bring some volatility in trading and mortgage rates, but Thursday's Employment report is definitely the most important of the week. Its impact can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week.
The financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, but there will be no early close for the bond market Thursday as has been the case previous years. However, it will still probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009