Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (6/24/2010)

June 25th, 2010 8:16 AM by Lehel S.

Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak open in stocks and somewhat favorable results from this morning's economic data. The stock markets are showing noticeable losses with the Dow down 99 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

May's Durable Goods Orders was posted early this morning, revealing a 1.1% decline in new orders at U.S. manufacturers for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last three or more years, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.3% drop in news order, meaning demand was not as weak as expected. However, if more volatile transportation-related orders such as aircraft orders are excluded, we saw a 0.9% increase. This was below the 1.3% increase that was forecasted, meaning that this report has mixed r esults. The headline number was stronger than expected, but if more volatile orders are excluded from the data, new orders fell short of expectations. Its impact on this morning's trading has been fairly minimal. 

The Labor Department reported this morning that 457,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous a week and slightly below forecasts of 460,000 new claims. Therefore, this data can be considered slightly negative for bonds, but since it tracks only a single week's worth of new claims, its impact on the markets and mortgage rates is usually minimal unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Yesterday's 5-year Treasury Note auction was met with a poor demand from investors. Fortunately, the markets were geared toward the FOMC meeting statement late yesterday. However, that will not be the case this afternoon when results of today's 7-year Note sale are posted. If the sale also draws wea k interest from investors, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise during afternoon trading. The auction results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction to them will come after that time.

There are two reports being released tomorrow morning that may affect mortgage pricing. The first is the final reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 3.0% rise in the GDP, which is what analysts are expecting to see again. 

The second report of the day and the last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan, who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more comfortable with their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data has the potential to affect bond trading and mortgage rates. A downward revision would be considered good news for bonds and rates, but forecasts are calling for no change from this month's preliminary reading of 75.5.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
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Posted by Lehel S. on June 25th, 2010 8:16 AM

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