June 23rd, 2008 2:15 PM by Lehel Szucs
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a negative open for stocks. The stock markets are starting the week off with losses with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.
There is no relevant economic news being released today. The rest of the week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are six economic reports scheduled for release between tomorrow and Friday, in addition to another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.
Tomorrow brings us the first important report of the week with the release of June's Consumer Confidence In dex (CCI). The CCI is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows an increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading 56.0, down from last month's 57.2 reading.
The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow and will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon. I suspect we will hear concerns about inflation that will lead to selling in bonds.
Overall, today will likely be the quietest day of the week. The most active should be tomorrow or Wednesday to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders could also help make it a busy day. Friday's news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2008