June 3rd, 2010 8:04 AM by Lehel S.
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's stock markets showed early gains. Stocks have continued to move higher, pushing the Dow up 89 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is economic data scheduled for release today that is relevant to mortgage rates. So, as expected, the stock markets are having the biggest influence on this morning's bond trading and mortgage pricing. It appears that the major stock indexes have more room to improve, therefore, it would not surprise me to see another upward revision to mortgage rates later today.
Tomorrow brings us the release of three reports that may affect mortgage rates. The first is the revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. It is believed that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 3.6% increase, but I don't think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from its forecasted revised reading of 3.4%.
The second release of the day will come from the Commerce Department, who will post April's Factory Orders data during late morning trading. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in orders of 1.7%.
The third report of the day may have a noticeable impact on the markets or be a non-factor dep ending on its results. The Institute for Supply Management will release its services index late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 55.6, with the same principals as yesterday's ISM manufacturing index. If this reading varies greatly from forecasts, we may see volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. However, if its results are in the general area of expectations, it will likely have no influence on the markets and mortgage pricing tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.