June 12th, 2010 12:12 PM by Lehel S.
ursday's bond market has opened well in negative territory after stocks opened with strong gains again. The Dow is currently up 200 points while the Nasdaq has gained 38 points. The bond market is currently down 22/32, but due to strength late yesterday we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.
Today's minor economic data failed to show any significant surprises. The Labor Department reported that 456,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but not enough to influence the markets or mortgage rates.
The second release of the morning was April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report that revealed a $40.3 billion trade deficit. This was smaller than expected, but since this data usually does not carry much direct influence on mortgage rates, its impact has been minimal. It does influence the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, which makes U. S. debt more or less attractive to overseas investors. However, the data seldom leads to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also worth noting is today's 30-year Bond auction. This sale is a little less important to mortgage rates than yesterday's 10-year Note sale was, but can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it was met with a particularly strong or weak demand from investors. Yesterday's sale showed strong interest in some indicators but lackluster in others. Overall, it is being considered an average auction. If today's sale follows suit, it likely will not influence mortgage rates this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the most important data of the week when May's Retail Sales data is posted. This very important report measures consumer spending, which is highly relevant to the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that sales rose 0.2% last month. A smaller than expected rise in sales would be good news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.
The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 74.5. A smaller than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds, but since this report is only moderately important it likely will not influence mortgage rates considerably.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were fina ncing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.