March 8th, 2010 10:22 AM by Lehel S.
Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory, extending last week's generally negative tone. The stock markets are flat with both the Dow and Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in rates due to strength in mortgage bonds late Friday.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that any changes to mortgage pricing will come from swings in stock prices. If the stock markets move higher from current levels, we may see bonds worsen and mortgage rates revise higher later today. If the major stock indexes move lower, mortgage rates may follow suit.
The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports along with the 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so today may not be the only day we look towards the stock markets for bond direction.
There are no relevant events scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday morning either. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.
Overall, it will likely be another fairly active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be today or tomorrow, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.