March 11th, 2009 12:28 PM by Lehel Szucs
Wednesday's bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic news and only small gains in stocks. The Dow is currently up 20 points while the Nasdaq has gained 6 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage near yesterday's levels.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release again today. Tomorrow brings us the first relevant data of the week. The 10-year Note sale is being held today while the 30-year Bond auction will be done tomorrow. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM each day. It is fairly common to see weakness in bonds right before the sales as trading firms prepare for them. If the auctions are met with a strong demand, that weakness is usually erased almost immediately. Therefore, is today's sale is met with a strong demand, we may see movement in bonds and rates this afternoon.
February's Retail Sales data will be released tomorrow morning. This report is extreme ly important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month's report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise tomorrow morning.
We also will get weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be little change from the previous week's total, but this data is not nearly important as the sales data is and will likely have little impact on the markets or rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 d ays... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009