February 5th, 2009 9:09 AM by Lehel Szucs
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors prepare for the upcoming debt sales the Treasury announced. The stock markets are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 23 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates slightly higher.
Today's only economic news was the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) service index. It showed a reading of 42.9 that was higher than expected, meaning the service sector was more optimistic about business conditions last month than in December. It also was a higher reading than was expected, but fortunately not enough to affect this morning's mortgage rates.
There are two pieces of important data scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is December's Factory Orders data and is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report except this one tracks new orders for both durable and non-durable goods . Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of 3.0%. A large variance from forecasts could lead to changes in mortgage pricing.
The second report of the day is Productivity and Costs data for the 4th Quarter. Since a high level of productivity is thought to allow economic growth without inflationary concerns, this data can cause enough movement in the bond market to affect mortgage rates. If it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts of a 1.0% increase, we may see some movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.
Also on tap for tomorrow are weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. With January's monthly statistics due out Friday morning, traders will be watching the data to help predict Friday's monthly numbers. Current forecasts are calling for 592,000 new claims. The larger the number the better scenario for mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was takin g place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009