November 4th, 2009 7:43 AM by Lehel S.
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors prepare for today's FOMC news. Early stock gains are also contributing to this morning's bond losses. The Dow is currently up 99 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.
There is no important economic data being released today. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said their services index fell last month, meaning that sentiment in the service sector was weaker than thought. This can be considered good news for the bond market, but this index is far less important than the ISM manufacturing index posted Monday. Therefore, its impact on this morning's trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.
This afternoon brings us the adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting. There is almost no possibility that the Fed raised key short-term interest rates during this monetary policy meeting. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of when the Fed may make a move. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours. Generally speaking, any hint of a rate increase coming relatively soon would be negative news for bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement release.
Tomorrow's data is relatively important to the bond market. This report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. It is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter equivalent to last quarter's final reading of 6.6%. Analysts have forecasted a 6.4% rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high l evels of productivity allows the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.