Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (10/29/2010)

October 30th, 2010 10:54 AM by Lehel S.

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic data failed to give us any negative surprises. The stock markets are calm with the Dow fluctuating between up and down a couple of points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today’s key data was the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed that the GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.0% during the quarter. This was a small increase over the 2nd Quarter’s final reading, but matched forecasts. The fact it didn’t show a stronger growth rate than many had thought had allowed bonds to move higher during morning trading. 

The second report of the day was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). It revealed an increase of 0.4%, falling a little short of expectations . This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because the index measures employer costs for wages and benefits. Since the reading showed a smaller than expected increase in those costs, fears of wage inflation should remain subdued. And since any unexpected signs of inflation are negative for bonds and long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds, we can consider this data favorable.

The third release of the day also gave us good results. The University of Michigan said their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month fell to 67.7. This was the revised reading for October and slightly lower than what analysts had predicted. It was also an 11-month low for the reading, indicating that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is good news for the bond market and rates because waning confidence means consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future, limiting fuel for eco nomic growth.

Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction was actually met with a fairly strong demand. It was better than Wednesday’s 5-year sale and was the best auction of the week. This helped push bond prices higher during afternoon trading yesterday and caused some lenders to improve rates slightly, while others may have waited until this morning to reflect those improvements.

Next week is quite busy in terms of economic data being released. There are several important reports scheduled, including the almighty Employment report. In addition to the data, there is also another FOMC meeting next week that will take center stage the middle part of the week. There are two reports being posted Monday that may influence mortgage pricing. They are September’s Personal Income and Outlays data and October’s ISM manufacturing index. Look for more details on those two and the rest of the week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
Posted in:General
Posted by Lehel S. on October 30th, 2010 10:54 AM

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