Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (10/26/2010)

October 26th, 2010 2:05 PM by Lehel S.

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in negative ground due to stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are relative calm with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Conference Board gave us this morning?s economic data, announcing a reading 50.2 in their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October. This was a little higher than what analysts were expecting, meaning more surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than they did last month. That indicates that consumers may be willing to spend more than they did last month, helping to fuel economic activity. Therefore, we have to mark this data as negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release that we need to watch. The Commerce Department will post September?s Durable Goods Orders early tomorrow morning. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. Analysts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.8%. If we see a larger than expected increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it hints that the manufacturing sector was not as strong as thought, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. This means it will likely take a fairly large variance for the data to have a noticeable impact on tomorrow?s rates.

Late tomorrow morning will be the release of September?s New Home Sales. This data covers the remaining 15% of home sales that yesterday?s Existing Home Sales report tracked and is thi s week?s least important data. It is expected to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
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Posted by Lehel S. on October 26th, 2010 2:05 PM

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