October 20th, 2008 9:24 AM by Lehel Szucs
Monday's bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock gains. The stock markets are mixed the Dow up 102 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's only economic data was September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. It was expected to show a decline of 0.3% but revealed an increase of 0.3%. This means that the economy may strengthen during the next few months when it was expected to worsen. However, offsetting this news was a downward revision to August's reading. What was previously announced as a 0.5% drop in August is now believed to be a 0.9% decline. That revision is helping to offset the surprise jump in this month's reading.
The primary focus in this morning's trading is Chairman Ber nanke's testimony before the House Budget Committee. He updated the committee on the status of the economic recovery, which included a prediction that the economy would be weak for several quarters. He also encouraged another economic stimulus package that may benefit taxpayers. His words are being taken as favorable to bonds, so look for some improvement as the morning goes on.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday. This will likely keep bonds fairly calm unless the stock markets are volatile again. As long as the major stock indexes remain calm, I am expecting the bond market and mortgage rates to follow suit for the most part.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates, assuming the stock markets are not wild again. The most important day will likely turn out to be today. However, just because it is a light week in terms of economic news, we should not let our guard down as the marke ts can implode or rally at anytime these days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2008