Our Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates (1/27/2011 - Update)

January 27th, 2011 9:11 AM by Lehel S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:


This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates. The post meeting statement did not give us any surprises either with the Fed reiterating earlier concerns about the unemployment rate. This was the results that many had expected, but the bond market has still turned south despite a fairly strong 5-year Treasury Note auction. The bond market is currently down 22/32, which could cause some upward revisions to mortgage pricing this afternoon. The stock markets have not made much of a move with the Dow up 23 points and the Nasdaq up 21 points.

As mentioned above, today’s Treasury auction went fairly well. Several of the indicators that we use to measure investor demand showed strength. Unfortunately, longer-term securities are not responding positively. However, it does give us reason to believe that tomorrow’s 7-year Note sale may be well bid also. These Notes are closer in term to mortgage bonds, so a strong auction could help fuel improvements to mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon.

The Commerce Department gave us this morning’s only relevant economic data with the release of December's New Home Sales. It showed an unexpected decline in sales of newly constructed homes, pushing last year’s total sales to their lowest in 47 years. This means that the new construction part of the housing sector was weaker than expected last month. That is basically good news for the bond market, but this report tracks a much smaller portion of sales than last week’s Existing Home Sales report did. Therefore, its impact on the bond market and mortgage rates is usually minimal and today was no different.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release. The first is last week’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 410,000 new claims fo r unemployment benefits were field last week. This would be a small increase from the previous week’s claims, indicating a slightly weaker employment sector. Since this data tracks only a single week’s worth of new claims, it usually takes a large variance from forecasts for it to directly affect mortgage rates.

December's Durable Goods Orders will also be released early tomorrow morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years, also known as big-ticket items. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show an increase in orders of approximately 1.5%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but a slight variance likely will have little impact on tomorrow’s mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.. .. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 
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Posted by Lehel S. on January 27th, 2011 9:11 AM

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