September 22nd, 2009 3:05 PM by Lehel Szucs
Tuesday's bond market has opened up slightly despite no relevant economic news on tap today. The stock markets showing minor gains with the Dow up 27 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, but we will again likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates as traders and lenders wait for tomorrow's events to take place before making any sizable changes.
There are no significant events or relevant economic reports scheduled for today. Investors seem to be preparing for tomorrow's events and will likely keep bond prices near current levels until then. This means I am not expecting to see any noticeable changes to mortgage rates this afternoon.
The first of this week's two important Treasury sales will take place tomorrow and the Fed's two-day FOMC meeting will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. The Treasury will sell 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes Thursday. If investor demand in these sales is strong, pa rticularly from international buyers, the broader bond market should move higher pushing mortgage rates lower. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of each sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction to the results will come during afternoon trading tomorrow and Thursday.
The FOMC meeting began today and will adjourn at 2:15 PM tomorrow afternoon. There is little possibility of seeing any type of change to key short-term interest rates. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to find when the Fed's next move may come. The wild card is how the markets react to the statement because the lack of a change to monetary policy will not affect the markets. If we see significant weakness in stocks, the bond market may benefit as a safe-haven from the volatility. This could lead to lower mo rtgage rates during afternoon hours and Thursday morning.
We will finally get to see some economic data later this week. Thursday brings us the release of one relevant monthly report and Friday as three scheduled. None of the reports are considered to be extremely important to the markets, but we may see some movement in rates as a result of it, particularly Friday.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009